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After a close defeat on the road against the Richmond Kickers, Pittsburgh (1-3-2) returns to Highmark Stadium for the first match of the Keystone Derby Cup, presented by K&L Gates and the Pennsylvania Lottery, against the Harrisburg City Islanders (2-1-1) this Saturday.

Marshall Hollingsworth has five points this season, which is tied for second most on the team. The midfielder recorded two points his last time out against Richmond on April 22, scoring his second goal of the season.  

The City Islanders have five goals this season, and different players have accounted for all five tallies. The Hounds will need to account for a number of players on the Harrisburg attack this Saturday.

The Riverhounds (1-2-2) look to stay undefeated on the road this week, as they clash with the Richmond Kickers (1-3-0) at 5 p.m. on Saturday. Fresh off of a tie with the Charlotte Independence, this will be Pittsburgh’s second straight road test.

Kick-start

The Hounds struck first and early, just minutes after kickoff in their past couple games. Both goals came off the foot of Kay Banjo, who scored in the 5th minute against Saint Louis FC and in the 2nd minute against Charlotte. The UMBC product has provided Pittsburgh with another scoring threat to pair on the front line with Corey Hertzog, as his two goals have been the only tallies for the Black and Gold in the past two games. Look for Banjo to create more scoring chances against Richmond.

Scoring drought

Richmond has been shutout in its last three games, all by the score of 1-0. The team’s only goal this season occurred in its 1-0 season opener victory against the Harrisburg City Islanders. One cause for the Kickers’ scoring woes is a lack of shots on goal. In its four games this season, Richmond has recorded eight shots on target. In comparison, the Riverhounds have 19 shots on goal in five games this year.

Captaining the ship

Pittsburgh captain Kevin Kerr has displayed his versatility thus far this season, starting games at forward and midfield. Both of his shots have been on target, and he recorded three tackles and three clearances on the defensive side of the ball. Kerr is also one of two Hounds to play every minute this season (defender Jamal Jack being the second player). Once again, the captain should be all over the field this Saturday.

Center backs Joe Greenspan and Jack combined for 17 clearances against Charlotte last time out. As the Hounds defense has fought off a red card suspension and injuries during the early part of this season, the duo’s steady production has helped anchor the backline. Greenspan and Jack have started all seven of their combined appearances, and look for them to continue to hold down the center back positions against Richmond.

For the past three games, the Hounds’ possession percentage has decreased from 51 to 46, and then to 29 percent. Despite the lack of possession, the Black and Gold has outshot its opponents 32-31 during this stretch. There’s no telling how long Pittsburgh can keep outshooting its opponents with a dwindling possession time, so it may need to flip the script against Richmond this Saturday.

After a one-game home stand, the Riverhounds (1-2-1) hit the road to clash with the Charlotte Independence (0-1-1) at 7 p.m. this Saturday. Like its last road trip, Pittsburgh carries a streak of one loss into the match. The Hounds will try to repeat history, as they previously bounced back with a win in enemy territory.

Change of heart

When the Eastern Conference foes last met, defender Joe Greenspan opposed the Hounds. Greenspan recorded 90 minutes with Charlotte in that match on Sept. 10, 2016. Now he changes course and will don the Black and Gold for Saturday’s game. The 6-foot-6-inch center back helped solidify the Hounds’ defense last time out against Saint Louis FC, as he tallied three tackles and six clearances. Greenspan will look to have a similar impact against his old team this Saturday.

A developing rookie tandem

Rookies Victor Souto and Kay Banjo have played key roles thus far in Pittsburgh’s 2017 campaign. Souto has held down the midfield, playing every minute this season and serving as a catalyst to the Hounds’ counterattack. On the other hand, Banjo has mainly been used as a substitute, only starting the Hounds’ match against Saint Louis FC – a game in which he scored his first professional goal. Both Souto and Banjo have become integral parts to the team and will look to build upon the successes of their rookie seasons.

Best behavior

For the first time this season, the Hounds did not record a yellow card in their match against Saint Louis FC this past Wednesday. Furthermore, Pittsburgh conceded only nine fouls against Saint Louis – another season low. The Black and Gold understand the importance of a clean match, having already played a man down due to a red card against FC Cincinnati on April 1. This is a trend Pittsburgh hopes to continue against Charlotte.

For the first time this season, Corey Hertzog was held to zero shots in the Hounds’ prior match against Saint Louis FC, a 2-1 defeat. Last year saw Pittsburgh go 0-5-1 in such instances. Despite the zero on the stat sheet, the forward still leads the USL with 13 shots in 2017. Expect Hertzog to bounce back this Saturday and come out firing on the frontline.

Brothers Alex and Enzo Martinez lead the Independence attack, combining for 10 goals and six assists during the 2016 campaign. This year, Alex has Charlotte’s only assist. The Hounds will need to account for this dangerous midfield duo throughout the game this weekend.

An unusual suspect set up Kay Banjo just outside of the 18-yard box.

Saint Louis FC goalkeeper Devala Gorrick botched a pass attempt and instead of finding a teammate wearing Green and White, he connected with an opposing forward donning the Black and Gold.

With the one-on-one chance against Gorrick, Banjo dribbled the ball inside the penalty area and released a shot on the ground past the outstretched arms of the goalkeeper into the corner of the net.

“I wasn’t expecting that, but the high-pressure worked,” Banjo said. “It just came to my feet and I had to finish that because that’s early. We have to set the tone.”

Banjo’s first goal of his professional career came in the 5th minute of the Riverhounds’ (1-2-1) 2-1 loss against Saint Louis FC (3-0-1) on Wednesday. After his tally, the UMBC product shared the moment with his teammates, being chased down and hugged.

“They’ve talked to me throughout the whole season,” Banjo said. “I’ve been unlucky with scoring. I get my chances, but I just happen to not finish them. I get very unlucky, but today, it was my day.”

Banjo had an opportunity to collect the second goal of his career a bit later in the match. In the 20th minute, he blasted a shot that beat Gorrick, but the ball clanged off the post.

The forward finished the game with three shots and one shot on goal. This was his fourth appearance this season and his first professional start.

“Kay has been really effective for us in training and games, so I felt good about [starting him],” head coach Dave Brandt said.

Due to a groin injury to defender Rich Balchan, Jack Thompson slid back from the midfield to the backline and Kevin Kerr fell back from the frontline to the midfield. This opened up a spot for Banjo to play up top with Corey Hertzog.

“You just have to be ready at any point,” Banjo said. “It’s not a matter of starting or coming in. You just always have to have an impact on the game.”

The Riverhounds were running out of time.

Pittsburgh faced a one-goal deficit in the season opener against New York Red Bulls II and stumbled upon a golden opportunity in the 81st minute.

After being brought down inside of the 18-yard box, Corey Hertzog lined up for a penalty kick. New York goalkeeper Rafael Diaz stared down the Hounds’ 2016 leading goal scorer, who took aim at the net.

On the referee’s cue, Hertzog broke toward the ball, placing his body behind his shot. A few feet off the ground, the ball sailed toward the goal. Diaz lunged to his right, blocking the ball away from the net.

Despite missing on the penalty kick, Hertzog stuck with the play, collected the rebound and ripped another shot from about seven yards out. Diaz once again blocked a piece of the ball, but this time it slipped past the goalkeeper into the goal.

“It was pretty lucky,” Hertzog said. “I need to finish that PK in the regular game, but the rebound came back and I just wanted to get it on target.”

Hertzog’s equalizer clinched a point for the Hounds, as the game remained tied at 3-3 up until the final whistle.

The hopes of players, coaching staffs and fan bases often times hang in the balance of scoring opportunities such as these. During Pittsburgh’s 2016 campaign, 19 of its 30 games were decided by one goal. Over the course of a season, a single tally is proven to be the difference between winning and losing – or even playoff berth and elimination.

As a goal had a similar effect to a tie during the 2016 season, this match was no different. The Hounds fell to FC Cincinnati, 1-0, and the late scoring opportunity would have netted Pittsburgh a point in the standings.

Opportunities like these will carry a lot of weight throughout the 2017 campaign, and it will be up to the Hounds’ counterattack system to cash in and generate scoring chances. As shown in recent history, one goal can make all the difference over the course of the season.

With so much riding on a single tally during a soccer match, it leaves one question left to answer – What is the value of a goal?

Statistical regression analysis involving goals and points earned in the 2016 final standings can help provide a clearer idea about a goal’s true worth.

As expected, there was a positive correlation between goals scored and points earned in the final standings during the 2016 USL season. For every additional goal scored, teams on average earned an extra 1.2 points in the final standings.

In other words, a single goal on average had nearly the same effect as a tie (one point) in the final standings during the 2016 campaign – and this was exemplified in Pittsburgh’s 2017 season opener, as Hertzog’s late tally clinched a draw.

Looking further into the value of a goal, Orlando City B clinched the final USL Eastern Conference playoff spot in 2016 with 35 points and 35 goals forwarded. This observation falls in line with the analysis model, as it predicts a point total of 35 should yield between 34-35 goals.

In 2017, the USL schedule jumps from 30 to 32 regular season games, so a team’s year-end point total may need to net more than the 35 points it took to make the postseason last year.

Orlando City B earned 1.17 points per match in 2016, which would hint that it might take 37-38 points for an Eastern Conference team to make the playoffs in 2017. If this were the case, it would be expected that the final playoff team would score between 35-37 goals during the 2017 regular season.

Heading into the 2017 campaign, head coach Dave Brandt implemented an offensive philosophy built around a strong counterattack scheme.

This does not mean Pittsburgh will sit back and absorb shots from its opponent, however. In addition to looking for counterattack opportunities, the Hounds want to play on the ground while generating consistent offensive pressure throughout their games.

Brandt said his counterattack scheme is a mid-length-of-field press that creates a “bear trap” for opposing teams. Ideally, the Hounds can close on the ball and then have space to launch their attack.

“This desire to strike quickly is a bit of an evolution and a new thing for me, but it’s a huge emphasis for us as we move forward,” Brandt said.

Key cogs in this scheme are the center midfielders, who can regain possession and start the counterattack. Victor Souto, Ben Swanson and Abuchi Obinwa have helped lead this effort in the midfield this year.

In Pittsburgh’s match against FC Cincinnati on April 1, Souto and Swanson started their first game together at midfield. The duo steadily moved up the ball to the frontline throughout the match and recorded a total of eight tackles in the process.

“We’ve been playing together all the games in preseason and we had a good chemistry today,” Souto said after the match.

On the receiving end of the center midfielders’ passes are frontline veterans Kevin Kerr and Hertzog, who have scored four of the Hounds’ five tallies this year.

In addition to the experienced play of Kerr and Hertzog, Pittsburgh has worked a rookie forward into the mix late in games. Kay Banjo, who previously played and was voted America East Striker of the Year at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), has subbed into all three matches and logged 73 minutes thus far in 2017.

While Banjo progresses through his first year at the professional level, veteran players help bring him along in Pittsburgh’s counterattack scheme.

“[Hertzog and I] work well with each other,” Banjo said. “We try to communicate a lot on and off the field. I feel like having that relationship on and off the field helps a lot during the game.”

Banjo recorded the first shot of his professional career in the FC Cincinnati match. Trailing 1-0 in the 74th minute, Souto started an offensive break. The midfielder tapped the ball up to Hertzog, who then fed the ball to Banjo. The UMBC product launched a shot from outside of the 18-yard box. The shot came with too much power, and the ball sailed over the crossbar.

“No matter if I miss a goal, [Hertzog’s] on me to get on the next one,” Banjo said. “Same thing I do to him. He’s always looking for me to score and I’m always looking for him to score.”