As the calendar turns into the final three months of the USL Championship season, the Hounds find themselves in unfamiliar territory by being on the wrong side of the playoff line.
But one of the staples of the Bob Lilley era — a run of six straight years qualifying for the playoffs — has been strong finishes to the season, which gives plenty reason to think the Hounds can make a move with 14 matches to play.
The Hounds (5-9-7) enter August five points back of Loudoun United FC for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but with two wins and a draw in their past three matches, things have trended upward in recent weeks. That alone is reason for optimism, despite a difficult stretch of upcoming games that begins with Saturday’s road trip to Western Conference contenders Sacramento Republic FC.
However, this tends to be the time of year Lilley’s teams have hit their stride in Pittsburgh, going back to his first season with the Hounds, 2018. That year, the team ended July with their only back-to-back losses of the season, but the group rebounded to win the next three and lose just once in the next 14 matches on its way to a third-place finish in the East — at that time, the Hounds’ best finish in the “modern” USL Championship.
In five full-length seasons under Lilley — excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season that didn’t begin until July — the Hounds are 37-11-21 from Aug. 1 onward, taking 132 of 207 possible points, or 1.91 per game.
While that isn’t a jaw-dropping amount above the 1.78 points per game taken in pre-August matches, that slight lift in form yields 2-3 extra points in the final standings. And after the Hounds finished first in the East by a single point in 2019, and then won the 2023 Players’ Shield by just three points, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where 2-3 points could again make a vital difference in a playoff chase.
Take a look back at recent seasons’ stretch runs, as the Hounds gear up for a final 14 matches in 2024 that will see them play six games against the teams they look to catch, the clubs holding the No. 4-8 spots in the East currently (Indy, Birmingham x2, Detroit, Rhode Island, Loudoun).
2018 (6-2-7 after Aug. 1)
The Hounds were already in solid position in mid-July, but consecutive losses to Charleston and North Carolina on last-minute goals let in a few signs of worry. Unshaken, the group remained one of the toughest in the league to beat, and their only two losses after the calendar flipped to August came at top-of-the-league FC Cincinnati and in the finale at New York Red Bulls II, after the Hounds already had the No. 3 seed in the playoffs secured.
2019 (11-1-3 after Aug. 1)
One of the most remarkable closing runs ever to finish a season, the Hounds lost only once after July 7 and went 8-0-3 in their final 11 matches. That propelled the team from the middle of the playoff pack to the top of the table, but the top spot in the East wasn’t secured until a pair of last-minute road wins to close the season put the Hounds a point ahead of Nashville SC for the No. 1 seed. Steevan Dos Santos took all three points in the 88th minute at Saint Louis before the first professional goal by Mark Forrest — a 90th-minute winner at Birmingham — became a thing of Hounds’ legend.
2020 (Pandemic-shortened season)
While not particularly instructive with only a 16-game schedule, the Hounds did go 9-2-1 from August onward after a 2-2 start to the season in July.
2021 (8-4-4 after Aug. 1)
You could argue the late-season push started a little later this season, as the team suffered consecutive losses in August. The group took flight soon afterward, going 7-2-3 in the final 12 games with the only losses coming on the road by a single goal at Charlotte and Miami. Russell Cicerone starred in that late-season push, scoring eight goals in the final 12 matches, and Alex Dixon secured dramatic draws with late goals at San Antonio and at home in a 3-3 thriller with Charleston.
2022 (4-3-5 after Aug. 1)
This 2022 season is the outlier to the trend, with the team performing better on a per-match basis prior to August. Much of that was the result of a red-hot July, however, as the team went 5-0-1 through that month to shake off a three-match losing streak in June. Still, the Hounds ended the regular season with momentum after a tough 1-1 draw at Sacramento and a 3-1 home win over Oakland, and that carried into the playoffs as the team rallied with an Edward Kizza-led comeback to advance in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals at Birmingham.
2023 (8-1-2 after Aug. 1)
The Players Shield came back to Pittsburgh after this furious finish to the season, as the team went 7-0-1 in the next eight following an Aug. 16 loss to Orange County. Timely goals marked this run, including JC Obregón blasting in a late winner to a wild 4-3 triumph in Hartford, and Robbie Mertz finishing in the 90th minute to put away Miami on the road. But nothing could match the performance on the road at Tampa Bay on Oct. 7, when Albert Dikwa silenced the Rowdies’ faithful with an opening-minute goal, and Arturo Ordóñez added a second-half finish to clinch the Players’ Shield — the club’s first official trophy — with a match to spare.
