The Riverhounds were running out of time.
Pittsburgh faced a one-goal deficit in the season opener against New York Red Bulls II and stumbled upon a golden opportunity in the 81st minute.
After being brought down inside of the 18-yard box, Corey Hertzog lined up for a penalty kick. New York goalkeeper Rafael Diaz stared down the Hounds’ 2016 leading goal scorer, who took aim at the net.
On the referee’s cue, Hertzog broke toward the ball, placing his body behind his shot. A few feet off the ground, the ball sailed toward the goal. Diaz lunged to his right, blocking the ball away from the net.
Despite missing on the penalty kick, Hertzog stuck with the play, collected the rebound and ripped another shot from about seven yards out. Diaz once again blocked a piece of the ball, but this time it slipped past the goalkeeper into the goal.
“It was pretty lucky,” Hertzog said. “I need to finish that PK in the regular game, but the rebound came back and I just wanted to get it on target.”
Hertzog’s equalizer clinched a point for the Hounds, as the game remained tied at 3-3 up until the final whistle.
The hopes of players, coaching staffs and fan bases often times hang in the balance of scoring opportunities such as these. During Pittsburgh’s 2016 campaign, 19 of its 30 games were decided by one goal. Over the course of a season, a single tally is proven to be the difference between winning and losing – or even playoff berth and elimination.
As a goal had a similar effect to a tie during the 2016 season, this match was no different. The Hounds fell to FC Cincinnati, 1-0, and the late scoring opportunity would have netted Pittsburgh a point in the standings.
Opportunities like these will carry a lot of weight throughout the 2017 campaign, and it will be up to the Hounds’ counterattack system to cash in and generate scoring chances. As shown in recent history, one goal can make all the difference over the course of the season.
With so much riding on a single tally during a soccer match, it leaves one question left to answer – What is the value of a goal?
Statistical regression analysis involving goals and points earned in the 2016 final standings can help provide a clearer idea about a goal’s true worth.
As expected, there was a positive correlation between goals scored and points earned in the final standings during the 2016 USL season. For every additional goal scored, teams on average earned an extra 1.2 points in the final standings.
In other words, a single goal on average had nearly the same effect as a tie (one point) in the final standings during the 2016 campaign – and this was exemplified in Pittsburgh’s 2017 season opener, as Hertzog’s late tally clinched a draw.
Looking further into the value of a goal, Orlando City B clinched the final USL Eastern Conference playoff spot in 2016 with 35 points and 35 goals forwarded. This observation falls in line with the analysis model, as it predicts a point total of 35 should yield between 34-35 goals.
In 2017, the USL schedule jumps from 30 to 32 regular season games, so a team’s year-end point total may need to net more than the 35 points it took to make the postseason last year.
Orlando City B earned 1.17 points per match in 2016, which would hint that it might take 37-38 points for an Eastern Conference team to make the playoffs in 2017. If this were the case, it would be expected that the final playoff team would score between 35-37 goals during the 2017 regular season.
Heading into the 2017 campaign, head coach Dave Brandt implemented an offensive philosophy built around a strong counterattack scheme.
This does not mean Pittsburgh will sit back and absorb shots from its opponent, however. In addition to looking for counterattack opportunities, the Hounds want to play on the ground while generating consistent offensive pressure throughout their games.
Brandt said his counterattack scheme is a mid-length-of-field press that creates a “bear trap” for opposing teams. Ideally, the Hounds can close on the ball and then have space to launch their attack.
“This desire to strike quickly is a bit of an evolution and a new thing for me, but it’s a huge emphasis for us as we move forward,” Brandt said.
Key cogs in this scheme are the center midfielders, who can regain possession and start the counterattack. Victor Souto, Ben Swanson and Abuchi Obinwa have helped lead this effort in the midfield this year.
In Pittsburgh’s match against FC Cincinnati on April 1, Souto and Swanson started their first game together at midfield. The duo steadily moved up the ball to the frontline throughout the match and recorded a total of eight tackles in the process.
“We’ve been playing together all the games in preseason and we had a good chemistry today,” Souto said after the match.
On the receiving end of the center midfielders’ passes are frontline veterans Kevin Kerr and Hertzog, who have scored four of the Hounds’ five tallies this year.
In addition to the experienced play of Kerr and Hertzog, Pittsburgh has worked a rookie forward into the mix late in games. Kay Banjo, who previously played and was voted America East Striker of the Year at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), has subbed into all three matches and logged 73 minutes thus far in 2017.
While Banjo progresses through his first year at the professional level, veteran players help bring him along in Pittsburgh’s counterattack scheme.
“[Hertzog and I] work well with each other,” Banjo said. “We try to communicate a lot on and off the field. I feel like having that relationship on and off the field helps a lot during the game.”
Banjo recorded the first shot of his professional career in the FC Cincinnati match. Trailing 1-0 in the 74th minute, Souto started an offensive break. The midfielder tapped the ball up to Hertzog, who then fed the ball to Banjo. The UMBC product launched a shot from outside of the 18-yard box. The shot came with too much power, and the ball sailed over the crossbar.
“No matter if I miss a goal, [Hertzog’s] on me to get on the next one,” Banjo said. “Same thing I do to him. He’s always looking for me to score and I’m always looking for him to score.”
