Playoff time is here again, and the Hounds find themselves in what looks — on paper — to be the best matchup in the opening round the USL Championship Playoffs, presented by TwinSpires.
With the divisional structure pitting the Hounds (17-8-7, 58 points) against Birmingham Legion FC (18-8-6, 60 points), this first round matchup is the only one pitting two teams with 17 or more wins against one another. And the combined 118 points between the teams is tied for the most of any first-round game with the Tampa Bay/Tulsa matchup. (And let’s be honest, the Rowdies did most of the heavy lifting to account for that game’s 118!)
Perhaps surprisingly, given that information, the presenting partners at TwinSpires still didn’t set this as the closest first-round match in their eyes — that honor went out West to the Colorado Springs at Orange County encounter — but there’s still not going to be anyone calling this game an upset, whether it’s the Legion or Hounds who advance.
That brings us to the 3 Things for this week, which could be major factors in a game that looks so evenly balanced.
1.) Fear the beards
This section could have been titled “No Shave November,” but both the Hounds’ Danny Vitiello and the Legion’s Matt Van Oekel have had the razors on long-term leave for quite a while. But the two hirsute goalkeepers have more in common than facial hair, they happen to be two of the USL’s most effective players at their position.
Vitiello and Van Oekel both finished the season tied for third in the league with nine shutouts each, and their goals-against average is almost identical, both rounding off to 0.96. Van Oekel does boast the more impressive save percentage, .760 contrasted with Vitiello’s .720, but Vitiello has the slight edge over the past four games with just one goal allowed against two given up by Van Oekel.
In a playoff setting, one or two big saves could be the difference in a match, and both goalkeepers have shown they can do that. Just of late, Vitiello made a penalty kick stop against Tampa Bay, and his diving save on Hartford’s Luka Prpa kept the Hounds in the running for second place until the final whistle. To his credit, Van Oekel was the league’s Week 4 Player of the Week — one of only four goalies to win that honor in 2021 — and made the league’s Save of the Month in June.
Of course, the two defenses in front of them will play just as important a role in how the match will play out, but if you’re looking for the player who might be the biggest difference-maker, start with the two bearded fellows.
2.) Go with Neco
Hounds fans have plenty of fond memories of Neco Brett, whose two-year run with the team in 2018-19 yielded 34 goals, a club record for any two-season span. Now Brett is plying his trade for the Legion, and with 18 goals this season, his scoring pace has not slowed down one bit.
Slowing Brett down will be a challenge, one that requires awareness on the part of the Hounds’ defense. Where the Jamaican and Robert Morris alum excels is his ability to get in dangerous positions to receive the ball, and once he has it, to finish quickly and efficiently.
To counter that, the Hounds defense must stay tight to Brett and not allow him space. Brett isn’t a player who will beat people off the dribble or with tremendous speed down the flank, as would an Alex Dixon or Miami’s former Hound Christiano François. Brett’s game is two or three touches mixing it up in the box or making one decisive move and firing on net, something he can’t be allowed the time to do.
The good news is, there’s no one who will have a better scouting report on his former player than Bob Lilley — and that can be said about other Legion players Ryan James and Thomas Vancaeyezeele, as well. But drawing something up on the board and executing it on the field are two different things, and the Hounds will be put to the test by Brett.
3.) Shake off the misses
The Hounds’ last game against Hartford was marred by a number of misses that should have put the result — and possibly home field — in the Hounds’ hands.
Bad enough was that the Hounds took 11 shots in the match and only one, by center back Mekeil Williams, hit the target in the scoreless draw. But looking at the advanced metrics that chart game flow and the infamous xG stat (the number of goals a team “should” score based on the chances created) illustrates it further.
The Hounds had three chances with a goal probability of 20 percent or greater — Russell Cicerone’s open look in the 39th minute, the corner kick headed back across the face of goal by Williams in the 68th minute and Anthony Velarde’s wide shot in the 88th minute — and a fourth that scored just below 20 percent, the free kick won just on the edge of the box by Dani Rovira in the 43rd minute.
Add in Cicerone’s first great chance when Tommy Williamson flicked the ball between the legs of the defender, and that’s five excellent chances. The Hounds hit the frame on none of them.
Creating those sorts of chances is why the Hounds’ xG in the match was 1.79, an average which says that the Hounds should get at least two goals from that game more often than not.
Off days happen, and it’s important that Cicerone, Velarde, or whoever else gets on the end of attacking moves Sunday doesn’t think about those past misses. Instead, hit it with confidence and on frame, and the results can only get better.
